Science Research Project

Does the Groundhog do a good job of predicting the weather ?

OUR PROJECT :

On every February 2, the groundhog looks for his shadow . When he sees his shadow people predict six more weeks of winter.When he does not see his shadow, an early spring is predicted.

.We will collect weather information from various sites, and check to see if this old saying is a reliable weather prediction.

Groundhog # 1

Happy Groundhog Day from Punxsutawney ,Pennsylvania!

DOES Phil say Six More Weeks of winter?

Phil's Site

Groundhog #2

***Wharton Willie's 2000 Prognostication

February 2nd

Wee Willies Site

Link to Groundhog Project 2001

Groundhog Project Conclusions - 2000

The groundhog predicted that there would be six more weeks of winter. Our Weather data showed that there were eleven days below 40 degrees, and 20 days above 40 degrees. Because of the more warm days, we decided that the groundhog was not good at predicting the weather.

We decided that for most of the places reporting data, spring came early.

DATA INTERPRETATION

Other schools sent us weather data about their temperatures.After looking at the graphs made by the kids on our class, we decided the following :

1. The temperatures around the US and Canada were not the same for every place.We used maps for locations of schools,and checked those temperature graphs as to north and south on the map.

2. We could see some are warmer, and some are colder we think because they are either closer to the North Pole, or closer to the Equator.

3. Not every school sent us data for all the days, and we did not get all of our day's weather,so the ideas are just general ideas.

Schools that sent weather data :

1.Narragansett, Rhode Island, 2.Achworth, Georgia, 3.Arlington, Texas, 4.Allison, Iowa, 5.Hinesville, Georgia , 6.Ripley,Tennessee 7.Wetumka, Oklahoma, 8.Salsbury, Maryland 9.Paulsbo, Washington 10. Perry, Ohio 11.Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

12. Greensboro, North Carolina, 13.Hurricane, West Virginia.

School District of Grand Island,Nebraska

Name:Betty Foster

Building: Jefferson Elementary School

Curriculum Area:

Grade Level: Primary - Middle School

Concept: On every February 2, the groundhog looks for his shadow .When he sees his shadow, people predict six more weeks of winter. When he does not see his shadow, an early spring is predicted.

Brief Description of Lesson:

We will collect weather information from various sites, and check to see if this old sayings a reliable weather prediction.

Nebraska State Curriculum Standards:

Reading : 3.9, 4.3, 4.6, 5.1, 5.5, 5.6 Social Studies : 4.1 , 4.2 , 4.21

Math : 4.1 , 4.3.2 , 4.5.1 Science : 4.1.3 , 4.2.1 , 4.3.1 , 4.4.1

District Curriculum Objectives:

Reading : Read for the main idea,make inferences, follow directions , Art : Lesson 23 - Murals

Math : Create and use data files. Science: Become familiar with scientific processes.

Nebraska State Technology LEARNS COMPETENCIES: 3, 4 , 5

District Technology Objectives: :Word processing,email, web search for information retrieval.

Hardware Needed:Computer with e-mail, connection to the web.

Computer to Student Ratio:One per class.

Software Needed: Email ability

Amount of time needed online: 10 - 15 minutes per school day.

URLs of Sites: Punxsutawney Phil

Wee Wharton Willie

Lesson Design

1. Capture the attention of the learners by connecting them to the concept in a personal way.

Read the book, "Will Spring Be Early? or Will Spring Be Late ?", By Crocket Johnson, Crowell ,New York,1959.

2. Guide the students to reflect on the activity.

Do a KWL chart , ( What you Know, Want to Know, What you Learned ) on the Groundhog and what they students know on this subject.

3. Give the learners a new and wider view of the concept by connecting to their personal knowing of the concept. Go to the computer lab and have them explore the two groundhog web sites.

4. Provide an acknowledged body of information related to the concept.

Using teacher written material, read about the history of Groundhog Day. Use it in guided reading activities.

5. Provide a hands-on activity for practice and mastery of the elements of the concept.

As a part of the regular math activity,"Every Day Counts,"have the students use the Netscape site on the computer to locate local weather information.This is then put on an overhead, and this information is recorded in the weather spreadsheet folders by the rest of the class.Two students at a time work well doing this activity.

6. Learners apply the concept to a constructive project.

For this project,the class will record their weather information daily, and email this to project partners.The partners will also email their weather information back.The received mail is then printed out for the student to keep and also record on a weather spreadsheet for their partner.

7. Refine and edit work.

At the end of the six weeks of recording weather data, the class will not the number of days above and below 40' on their weather data spreadsheets.Graphs will be constructed to show this information.Students will decide if the predicted weather is the same or different from the one the groundhog predicted.

8. Share the work with others :

The graphs and weather results will be posted on the school's WWW homepage. A mural showing the groundhog underground asleep, and up seeing his shadow will be created.

Grand Island, Nebraska Climate Information

Average temperature : 50.1

Hottest Month : July, average temp. 77.2

Coldest Month : January, average temp. 22.6

Average Precipitation : 21.85 inches

Highest year - 1905 - 45.85 inches

Lowest year - 1940 - 11.91

Average snowfall per winter season : 27.5 inches

Last day of killing frost in the spring : April 29th

Earliest day of killing frost in the fall : October 6th

The tradition of Candlemas Day stems from the early Christians in Europe. For centuries it was the custom to have the clergy bless candles and distribute them to the people. This day marked a milestone in the winter and the weather on that day was important. According to an old English song:

Roman legions, during the conquest of the northern regions supposedly brought this tradition to the German peoples who picked up on it and concluded that if the sun made an appearance on Candlemas Day, an animal, the hedgehog, would cast a shadow thus predicting six more weeks of winter.

As Europeans sailed for the new world they brought with them their beliefs and traditions but left behind the flora and fauna of their homeland. Pennsylvania's earliest European settlers were Germans, the "Pennsylvania Dutch". There were no hedgehogs in Pennsylvania, but they found groundhogs in profusion. The groundhog resembles the European hedgehog, and as it turned out the groundhog, or "woodchuck", already was esteemed by the Indians. It was observed that the groundhog is a most wise and sensible animal. If the sun did appear on Feb. 2nd , (Candlemas Day), therefore, he would see his shadow and hurry to his underground home for another six weeks of winter.

Days

25
24
24
22
21
19
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12
11
10
9
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4
3
2
1
0

Temperatures - 40 + 40